As a football enthusiast, I have been fascinated with the concept of the sure bet prediction where there is an assumption that out there in the sports betting universe there is an algorithm, formula, methodology or way to guarantee a win on a sports bet especially in football or what is called soccer in America.
So the question I welcome you to analyze with me is whether there is a way to come up with a sure bet or a guaranteed win when it comes to sports betting in relation to football.
Firstly let’s define what we mean by a sure bet, what does the word sure mean? according to dictionary.com there are multiple definitions for sure but the two that apply to this conversation are “confident, as of something expected: sure of success. ” and assured or certain beyond question: a sure victory. ” https://www.dictionary.com/browse/sure
What of a bet? This is defined as a wager or a risk taken on an uncertain outcome or event.
Now that we have the definitions is there a possibility of wagering on a football sports event with an assurance of success? The answer to this is maybe and I will explain why
I will tackle this with regards to wagers or bets placed on possible outcomes of football matches. There is definitely no certainty of a certain outcome when it comes to football due to such factors as injuries, red cards, player state of mind is affected by personal challenges and so on but there are definitely ways to increase your probability of correctly predicting the outcome of a football match.
The general masses believe that a sure bet is an impossibility or an extremely difficult aspect to come up with and I agree to an extent academically but I disagree from experience. Kindly don’t get me wrong am not suggesting that you can have a 100% success rate in sports betting but what am saying is that you can achieve a 90% success rate in sports betting and be profitable while at it.
HOW DO I COME UP WITH A SURE BET PREDICTION?
STEP 1:This is not a get quick rich skim
Like everything in life, you will not get rich overnight through sports betting. In order to have a positive yield while betting on football matches, you need to invest a lot of time and energy to understand the main dynamics that provide an indication of the possible outcome of matches.
This means you need to source reliable sources of football statistics or historical data, invest time in scouring the internet for news related to the matches you are looking at, test and retest different methodologies until you find one that provides an acceptable success rate which is above 55%.
STEP 2:How to create a successful sure bet prediction methodology
Bookmakers provide 100+ markets for a single match and the most crucial aspect of sports betting is identifying three or four markets that you are comfortable with and that you can access enough data to aid you to identify matches whose possible outcomes will fit into your preferred markets. Through my own experience what works for me is any market that has only two possible outcomes meaning probability wise I have a 50% chance of success. An example of this is Over 1.5 goals, Draw No Bet, double chance, BTTS. These markets are favorable as compared to such riskier markets as correct score and halftime/fulltime
STEP 3:Limit your greed, have a cap for your odds
I prefer multibets as compared to single bets for they give me acceptable odds but I limit my total odds to 10 odds or less and the reason for this is that with higher odds you are forced to take higher risks or consider more games which is risky as well.
What most forget is that you should look at odds in relevance to margins/profit so for example an odd of 1.25 provides a 25% margin/profit so hypothetically if you can manage to come up with a methodology that has an 80% success rate on 1.5 odds it means for every amount you spend you stand a chance at a 50% profit which is quite insane if you consider that the best performing hedge funds in the world have returns lower than 50% per year. If you place bets on a daily basis and you have an 80% success rate meaning you win 5/7 days it means you will be extremely profitable with a weekly margin/profit of 14% and with higher odds you end up making a larger margin as illustrated below:
| DAY OF THE WEEK | ODDS | STAKE | OUTCOME | WINS | MARGIN |
| MONDAY | 1.5 | KES 100.00 | WIN | KES 150.00 | |
| TUESDAY | 1.5 | KES 100.00 | WIN | KES 150.00 | |
| WEDNESDAY | 1.5 | KES 100.00 | WIN | KES 150.00 | |
| THURSDAY | 1.5 | KES 100.00 | LOSS | -KES 100.00 | |
| FRIDAY | 1.5 | KES 100.00 | WIN | KES 150.00 | |
| SATURDAY | 1.5 | KES 100.00 | WIN | KES 150.00 | |
| SUNDAY | 1.5 | KES 100.00 | WIN | KES 150.00 | |
| KES 700.00 | KES 800.00 | 1.142857 | |||
| DAY OF THE WEEK | ODDS | STAKE | OUTCOME | WINS | MARGIN |
| MONDAY | 2.5 | KES 100.00 | WIN | KES 250.00 | |
| TUESDAY | 2.5 | KES 100.00 | WIN | KES 250.00 | |
| WEDNESDAY | 2.5 | KES 100.00 | LOSS | -KES 100.00 | |
| THURSDAY | 2.5 | KES 100.00 | LOSS | -KES 100.00 | |
| FRIDAY | 2.5 | KES 100.00 | WIN | KES 250.00 | |
| SATURDAY | 2.5 | KES 100.00 | WIN | KES 250.00 | |
| SUNDAY | 2.5 | KES 100.00 | WIN | KES 250.00 | |
| KES 700.00 | KES 1,050.00 | 1.5 | |||
| DAY OF THE WEEK | ODDS | STAKE | OUTCOME | WINS | MARGIN |
| MONDAY | 3.5 | KES 100.00 | WIN | KES 350.00 | |
| TUESDAY | 3.5 | KES 100.00 | WIN | KES 350.00 | |
| WEDNESDAY | 3.5 | KES 100.00 | LOSS | -KES 100.00 | |
| THURSDAY | 3.5 | KES 100.00 | LOSS | -KES 100.00 | |
| FRIDAY | 3.5 | KES 100.00 | LOSS | -KES 100.00 | |
| SATURDAY | 3.5 | KES 100.00 | WIN | KES 350.00 | |
| SUNDAY | 3.5 | KES 100.00 | WIN | KES 350.00 | |
| KES 700.00 | KES 1,100.00 | 1.571429 |
STEP 4:Everything in life requires insurance
To ensure a higher rate of success I always recommend you create multibets that are hedged and am not talking about arbitrage. I personally research two possible markets for the same game that offer adequate odds so that when I create a multibet I am able to hedge without losing out on odds. However the hedging should not be in the same market e.g don’t hedge over 1.5 goals with under 1.5 goals, you can hedge over 1.5 goals with something like BTTS such that you are able to take advantage of such scores as 1:1 2:0 2:1 which are common scores in soccer or you can hedge it with a double chance such as Draw No Bet which caters for a 0:0 or 1:0 score and still allows your multibet to continue running